Monthly Report • July 18th 2025 • Center for Arakan Studies

# Monthly Report | June 2025

Photo Credit via Western News

# Blood, Water, and Displacement: Arakan's War-Torn Reality

Monitoring of a brief situation of political tension, economic issues, social issues, and humanitarian issues in Arakan in June 2025.

### About report

This report is part of the CAS's monthly series, which delves into four key areas of the state of Arakan. The first section addresses political concerns, including the armed revolution, junta activities, and issues of political freedom. The second examines the state's economic climate, focusing on rising prices, declining demand, foreign direct investment, and border trade. The third and fourth sections cover social and humanitarian issues, respectively; these include education, health, migration, and the internally displaced persons (IDP) population.

Key data in the report are sourced from local media outlets, such as DMG, Western News, among others. The aim of this report is to shed new light on the situation for observers endeavoring to comprehend the dynamics at play in the region.

### Executive Summary

- The ongoing conflict in Arakan, known as Rakhine state, has intensified political tensions, with the Arakan Army (AA) in Rakhine, and generally in Myanmar, revolutionary forces asserting control over key areas while facing resistance from opposing factions. The Arakan People’s Revolutionary Government demonstrated governance capabilities by repairing critical infrastructure, such as the Ponnagyun–Maungdaw trade road, despite continued hostilities. Political fragmentation was evident as local and revolutionary groups coordinated rescue and aid efforts, highlighting a shift toward localized authority.

- Economic activities in Arakan have been severely disrupted by both conflict and environmental challenges, with damaged infrastructure—like the Ponnagyun–Maungdaw trade road—hampering border trade. Heavy monsoon rains and flooding further strained local economies, particularly in Thandwe and Ponnagyun, where displacement and infrastructure damage have limited access to markets and resources.

- The social fabric of Arakan has been strained by widespread displacement, with communities in AA-controlled areas, Sittwe, and Ponnagyun facing acute survival challenges. Community- led initiatives, such as the “People for People” program across Rakhine, Karenni, Sagaing, and Magway, have fostered resilience but remain insufficient to address the scale of need. The return of some Muslims from Bangladesh refugee camps to Arakan has introduced additional social complexities, exacerbating resource competition.

- The humanitarian crisis in Arakan deepened in June 2025 due to conflict, flooding, and displacement, with urgent needs for food, shelter, and aid in AA-controlled areas, Sittwe, and Ponnagyun. Heavy rains and the overflow of the Thuzaychaung Dam in Thandwe displaced over 200 families, while Rakhine migrant workers in Kachin faced severe shortages. The AA and revolutionary forces provided critical food and shelter in Paletwa and three Rakhine towns, but ongoing airstrike threats have hindered rebuilding efforts. The scale of displacement and resource scarcity necessitates immediate and sustained international humanitarian intervention.

### Key Developments

- A - Politics and Armed Conflicts
- B - Economic Situations
- C - Social Issues
- D - Humanitarian Issues

### A - Politics and Armed Conflicts

- Intensified Fighting in Kyaukphyu Despite Ceasefire Declarations

On June 3, shortly after the Myanmar junta and the Three Brotherhood Alliance extended a temporary truce, fierce clashes erupted in Kyaukphyu. Junta forces bombarded the area, and by June 4, fighting had continued near Kap Hsay village. On June 5, the Arakan Army (AA) secured a strategic plateau outpost along the Ann–Padan Road. Throughout June, the junta deployed airstrikes, naval artillery, and ground assaults, resulting in significant civilian casualties—including a woman killed on June 9 and a 12-year-old girl among four people killed in Thandwe on June 8. By June 16, AA shelling targeted military battalions, and fighting escalated, with junta troops suffering heavy losses and retreating by June 30.

- 2. AA's Strategic Advances and Territorial Control

On June 5, the AA fully secured a strategic plateau outpost along the Ann–Padan Road. By June 10, they had repelled a junta counteroffensive at the Nat Yae Kan MPT tower outpost, capturing three soldiers who had escaped from an air defense base. On June 13, the AA, alongside revolutionary forces, attacked the Ngathaingchaung Artillery Battalion (344) in Ayeyarwady, forcing junta troops to retreat with heavy losses. On June 15, the last key artillery base in Myebon Township was withdrawn, and army units in Kyaukphyu surrendered—with their arsenal—to the AA.

- 3. Civilian Impact and Human Rights Concerns

Civilian suffering was widespread, with over 30 civilian deaths and 90 injuries reported by HDCO due to junta attacks in multiple townships during the ceasefire period (as of June 27). A 9-year-old girl was raped and murdered in Minbya, and the AA arrested eight suspects (June 5). In Pauktaw, villagers demanded justice for a murder involving a village administrator (June 14). The junta intensified forced conscription, targeting Rakhine youth in Yangon (June 10) and detaining individuals attempting to flee junta-controlled areas in Ann (June 7). Landmine incidents along the Rakhine–Bangladesh border injured several civilians, including two Bangladeshi youths (June 22 and 28).

- 4. General Overview

In June 2025, Myanmar—particularly Rakhine State—experienced heightened conflict despite a temporary truce extended by the Myanmar junta and the Three Brotherhood Alliance on June 1 and 2, following an earthquake. The Arakan Army (AA) made significant territorial gains, capturing strategic outposts such as the Ann–Padan Road plateau and repelling junta counteroffensives. Kyaukphyu emerged as a focal point of intense fighting, with the junta employing airstrikes, naval artillery, and ground assaults, leading to heavy military and civilian casualties.

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© Center for Arakan Studies [CAS].

The CAS is an independent, non-partisan and research-oriented group conducting research and analyzing issues related to Arakan/Rakhine affairs.

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## The Investments of China and India in Rakhine State: The Perspectives of Rakhine Stakeholders on Ground in Post-Coup Myanmar

Rakhine State is an attractive location for foreign direct investment (FDI) due to several compelling factors. Firstly, its strategic position along the Bay of Bengal makes it a geostrategic hub for business ventures. Additionally, the region is endowed with abundant natural resources, breathtaking beaches, and fascinating cultural and historical sites, which make it a prime destination for investment in tourism, mining, and other related industries.

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While the junta’s forces and Arakan Army (AA) are now in an informal truce, the news of the registration of the political parties in Rakhine have become more prominent in March. As the twoarmed parties are in a lack of trust toward each other,...

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Political Tensions Among Different Parties in Arakan Grow

This report is a part of the monthly report series by the CAS. The report usually covers four key areas happening in the state of Rakhine. The first part covers the politics concerning the armed revolution, the junta activities and political freedom, etc.

### Center for Arakan Studies

Monthly Report • June 16th 2023

## Monthly Report | May 2023

Response to Cyclone Mocha in Rakhine State

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