Monthly Reports

#### Monthly Report | January 2023

Febuary 5, 2023 by Center for Arakan Studies (CAS)

#### Table of content

- Key Remarks
- Arakan Politics at the Move
- Relaxing Economic Livelihoods
- Challenging Social Security
- Humanitarian State After the Ceasefire

#### 1. Key Remarks,

- The Arakan/Rakhine’s political climate in January, 2023 showed the signs and calamity of the post-conflict period. The two parties, such as the ULA and junta authorities, attempted to extract the political profits as far as possible on account of the ceasefire. Yet, Rakhine electoral political parties are not on the united ground for the coming election. And the ULA/AA, a kingmaker of the state, remains silent on the question of election.
- The relaxation of trade and transportation in the post-conflict scenario brought some progress and hope for the local business community, especially in the areas of border trade with Bangladesh. However, as the negative consequences of the political instability and economic hardship affected the livelihoods of the local population in Rakhine, the amount of emigration, especially leaving foreign countries like Thailand and Malaysia, is still a significant symptom of harsh economic conditions in Rakhine.
- Although the temporary truce is in place, the threat of landmine danger toward rural community security remains active. The local news expressed the explosion of the mine and, consequently, killing some local residents, including the youths and students. Next, the Rohingya students studying at the universities in urban Sittwe areas also still face educational discrimination when it comes to the right to choice of subjects and degrees.
- In the humanitarian sector, the current ceasefire brought some degree of openness and hope for both humanitarian agencies and the IDP. Yet, the liberalization of the restrictions by the junta authorities is still limited, meaning that the INGO/NGO communities cannot still freely perform their activities, especially for the IDP camps in the rural areas (possibly under the ULA control). This issue still shows a sign of the district and state of the current ceasefire in Rakhine State. Humanitarian preparation for the return of another war is critical.

#### 1. Arakan Politics at the Move

In the first month of 2023, the political news in Rakhine based media coverage is mostly occupied by the situations related to the current ceasefire, election, local administration, political demands and freedom, the assassination of the ALP commander in chief and members, and junta leaders’ visit to the beach town of Ngapali in Rakhine State.

Starting with the news related to the ceasefire introduced just in late November 2022, the junta authority announced their unilateral ceasefire nationwide especially intended for the ethnic armed groups, on January 1, 2023. But, political analysts saw the move as unrealistic because the announcement excluded the PDF forces while the military reinforcement continued in many areas. On the other hand, the ULA/AA and junta engaged at least two times in prisoner exchange on January 5 and 16, respectively. But, the two groups were also about to break out in unexpected armed clashes at the entrance gate of Maungdaw town, the northernmost township of Rakhine State.

When it comes to the election news, it was visibly covered that the junta authority has conducted the process of population census as a step for the preparation of the coming election designated in August. But, the local people lack confidence in the process and credibility of the election under the regime. On the other hand, the chief of the Arakan Front Party (AFP) confirmed their political will to participate in the coming election as a part of a political solution to the current crisis. Other political parties like ALD and ANP are in a mixed situation where the more pro-democracy ALD expressed their strong distrust and boycotted the election. On January 24, the junta Chief said they were going to hold a free and fair election as far as possible

Next, much of the other political news was concerned with the state of political demand and restrictions on political freedom within the region. Only a handful of political prisoners were released by the junta. Still, many local residents and family members demanded the release and postponement for others due to the current ceasefire, especially for those arrested on account of having links with the AA/ULA. Next, the prison term of the former NLD-appointed Rakhine chief minister was reduced by the junta authority. Still, an activist from Thandwe who participated in the anti-military coup movement was punished by severe imprisonment on January 14.

Besides, the political assassination of the ALP chief and members took place on January 4, and the ULA/AA was accused of the crime but denied it. Consequently, on January 7, the ALP troops, in collaboration with the junta forces, staged a search operation in Sittwe township. Next, in the local administration, the administrators retook the office at the request of the ULA, and it was also welcomed by the junta. But, around 20 village administrators wanted to discontinue the duty, the news said on January 11. The rest of the news related to Arakan politics was covered by the visit of the junta chief, the clash of two Rohingya armed groups, the pro-junta protest and the meeting of the ULA secretary with the CDM medical family.

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#### About Center for Arakan Studies

The CAS is an independent, non-partisan and research-oriented group conducting research and analyzing issues related to Arakan/Rakhine affairs.

Mail: arakanstudies.org

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