Monthly Report • January 9th 2025 • Center for Arakan Studies

# Monthly Report | December 2024

# December in Arakan: Shifting Battlefields and Rising Challenges

Monitoring of a brief situation of political tension, economic issues, social issues, and humanitarian issues in Arakan in December 2024.

### About report

This report is part of the CAS's monthly series, which delves into four key areas of the state of Arakan. The first section addresses political concerns, including the armed revolution, junta activities, and issues of political freedom. The second examines the state's economic climate, focusing on rising prices, declining demand, foreign direct investment, and border trade. The third and fourth sections cover social and humanitarian issues, respectively; these include education, health, migration, and the internally displaced persons (IDP) population.

Key data in the report are sourced from local media outlets, such as DMG, Western News, among others. The aim of this report is to shed new light on the situation for observers endeavoring to comprehend the dynamics at play in the region.

### Key Remarks

The battlefields in Arakan are now moving into the southern parts of today's Rakhine State, the southern tail areas of Arakan Roma, and other conjunction areas with Magway, Pago, and Ayeyarwaddy regions. Thus, civilians in these areas are now facing various challenges and restrictions resulting from the armed conflicts. On another front, the junta jet fighters continue to launch airstrikes against civilian locations in central and northern Arakan. However, civilians in these areas are relatively safe. The AA announced a preference for a political solution over a military one.

Economic developments in Arakan centered on agriculture, trade, and policy changes. Farmers suffered losses due to decreased paddy yields and restricted fertilizer imports, while local experts promoted SAP fertilizer manufacturing despite machinery challenges. The AA banned imported alcoholic beverages to boost the local economy and reduce funding to the junta, confiscating banned alcohol shortly thereafter. Arakan's control over Chinese projects highlighted trade dynamics, as the AA also expressed openness to foreign investment.

Social hardships in Arakan persisted in December, with numerous challenges reported. Muslim IDPs in Myebon faced skin diseases, while Rakhine IDPs in Ayeyarwady were barred from fishing. Junta forces detained and killed two Arakanese women in Muse and looted unoccupied homes in Sittwe. Health crises worsened, with ART shortages leading to HIV related deaths, malaria fatalities rising in Ponnagyun, and children suffering from skin diseases in Thandwe. Meanwhile, cannabis use increased among youth, and IDPs in Ann experienced outbreaks of diarrhea, dysentery, and dengue fever.

Humanitarian challenges in Arakan intensified in December, marked by increasing displacement and urgent aid needs. Fierce combat in Gwa Township escalated the number of IDPs, with displaced families urgently requiring food, clothing, and medicine. Junta forces evicted entire villages, targeted healthcare facilities, and subjected fleeing women to sexual violence at checkpoints. IDPs faced livelihood hardships, land lease losses, and forced relocations, while over 600,000 people remained displaced, many enduring severe mental and physical distress. In response, the AA provided mental health support, but critical needs for food and shelter persisted across the region.

### Table of Content

- Part- I: Political Affairs
- Part- II: Economic Situations
- Part- III: Social Issues
- Part- IV: Humanitarian Issues

### Part- I: Political Affairs

On December 1, the junta airstrikes set school buildings ablaze in Nyaung Chaung village in Gwa after its troops’ withdrawal. Then, they also dispatched reinforcements, including tanks, to Gwa.

On December 4, the junta examined families of 10 missing officers deployed from Pathein and Danubyu Battalions after communication was lost in the Ann battle. In the next day, the junta vehicles were attacked by PRA-Magway on Ann-Padan Road, and 9 soldiers killed. On December 10, the junta enhanced security and defense measures in Kyaukphyu, site of significant Chinese projects. On the same day, more than 300 Junta soldiers surrendered to AA amid Ann conflict.

On December 16, the junta military chief called for greater air campaign effectiveness. On the same day, it is reported that the full capture of Western Command in Ann was delayed as junta officers resisted. Four days later on December 24, the junta airstrikes on Thandwe resulted in the injuries of three individuals and the damage to several houses. It was followed by the curfew from 6 PM to 6 AM in some Ayeyarwady townships due to the Arakan conflict. On December 21, the AA said that it had seized two-thirds of Gwa Town. Three days later, the junta reinforced Gwa in wake of Western Command’s fall. Then, on December 27, the junta fortified positions on Ann-Minbu Road. On the same day, the regime deployed more warships around Sittwe. Then, it was followed by the AA launches attacks on Kyauk Tan checkpoint in Sittwe the next day.

Then, December 30, the tensions rose between No (32) Police Battalion and AA in Kyaukphyu, center of Chinese Projects. On the same day, Arakanese youths among dozens were arrested by the regime in Yangon. Then, on December 31, the junta-allied organizations issued a statement opposing AA's control over much of Arakan State. On the same day, the 6-Mile Sayadaw in Maungdaw town was arrested for sharing information with Brig Gen Thurein Tun through video call. Then, the junta airstrikes on Yoe Ta Yote Village, Ponnagyun, also resulted in the deaths of 5 civilians, including 2 women and a boy, and injured 8 more.

In the case of AA's activities, on December 6, the group seized almost 30 battalions and units, excluding Western Command, in Ann. Two days later, the group declared the complete capture of NaKhaKha-5 in Maungdaw. Then, on December 15, the AA claimed full control of Taunggoke. Then, on December 19, the AA and junta reinforced positions on the Sittwe-Ponnagyun border. On the next day, the AA seized one of two junta battalions in Gwa. Then, on December 29, the group said that they are always ready to resolve conflicts via political means. Then, on December 30, the AA flagged its party and army flag at the southernmost areas in Rakhine state.

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The CAS is an independent, non-partisan and research-oriented group conducting research and analyzing issues related to Arakan/Rakhine affairs.

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