Monthly Reports

#### Monthly Report | December 2022

January 17, 2023 by Center for Arakan Studies (CAS)

- To present the changing conflict map in Arakan and neighbouring areas
- To address the political climate, economic livelihoods and social issues happening in Arakan
- To analyze the relations among changes in terms of armed conflict plus casualties, arrests, and humanitarian issues

#### Table of content

- Key Remarks
- Background of the Report
- A Quick Look at Political Climate
- Situations of Economic Livelihoods
- Addressing Important Social Issues
- State of Humanitarian Challenges

#### 1. Key Remarks,

- The introduction of the recent temporary truce in late November brought some level of stability to the Rakhine state in December 2022. But, the reinforcement activities and military build-up by the junta forces also meant that there was still a trust deficit in the relations between the two parties. In another way, the ordinary population was also not observed to achieve community peace and security at the moment.
- During the current temporary truce, the preparation of the junta authority and its forces, its proxy party like the USDP party in Rakhine State, for the upcoming sham election is found to accelerate its campaign involving its members. This momentum will continue as the election date comes closer. The stands of Rakhine political parties like the Arakan National Party (ANP), and the Arakan Front Party (AFP) will also appear more and more. But, The political stance of the ULA on the election hasn’t expressed anything yet, but its impression will definitely affect the entire Rakhine state.
- On the economic front, the acceleration of the junta authority for the implementation of some foreign investment projects can be found. For some investments like the ‘Nayputaung marble stone production project’ in Taunggup township, there are some local protests. But, due to the nature of current politics, it is more likely to be ineffective. Next, the re-initiation of the border trade with Bangladesh would bring some relaxation and profits for the trading community and other related people.
- In the social sector, the rise of theft, murder and robbery, which can be seen as the results of socioeconomic difficulties, continues to take place in both urban and rural areas. No effective response can still be seen. The lack of medicines and doctors in the clinics and hospitals must be handled, and the closure of schools and the absence of school teachers must also be addressed in both conflict-affected areas and across the State.
- For humanitarian and IDP issues, the news report mostly describes the forced relocation of the IDP population by the junta authority and the blockage of humanitarian assistance for some areas under the reason of ‘security’. As it is not purely a technical issue, the political understanding and negotiation between the two parties will bring more relaxation for the IDP community. As it has been shown during the previous armed clashes, the unilateral dependency on the will of the junta authority for the humanitarian challenge is quite unrealistic and challenging. Thus, engaging with other de facto authorities in the areas is critical not just for peacetime but also for the conflict period.

#### 1. Background of the Report

In the first week of August 2022, armed clashes resumed between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army in northern Rakhine — by breaking an informal ceasefire – that had been agreed to just days before the 2020 election. Unexpectedly, fighting paused again to address the deepening humanitarian crisis in November 2022. According to the Center for Arakan Studies (CAS) data entry, during about four months from (start month) to (end month) of fighting, at least 97 battles between the two armed groups occurred. At least 64 civilians were killed, and at least 107 were injured, mostly by random artillery shellings and deliberate killings by the junta forces. The junta arrested around 300 civilians . As of early November 2022, Khaing Thukha, AA spokesperson said in a press conference, that at least 80 out of the 200 arrested people by the junta administration were released.

At the beginning of the ceasefire, hopes were high that many of those who the junta had arrested would be released. However, as of January 10, although the junta released around 700 prisoners in Rakhine at the event of union day, anyone who is related to political cases especially for those who are arrested on suspicion of ties with the AA was not included in the released list. On the other hand, the ULA authority has also engaged in arresting the Arakan Front Party (AFP) politicians, and junta officials. The APF is led by Rakhine nationalist Dr. Aye Maung, and the party frequently is criticized by the Rakhine public because of good relations with the junta administration.

As for humanitarian challenges, the number of internally displaced persons grew to 98,500 in northern Rakhine, and the neighbouring Paletwa Township, Chin State, according to the UN report on November 28, 2022. The intensity of the humanitarian crisis deepened not just for the internally displaced persons but also for the general residents, especially for those who are living in the conflict-affected areas due to the blockage of humanitarian assistance by the junta authority since September 15, 2022. It included the restriction of travel and trade activities among the townships and outside of the state from September until they agreed on a recent temporary truce in November. The ULA Spokesperson mentioned the scenarios as a ‘humanitarian pause’ rather than a military decision. At the moment, although there are now prominent relaxations of civilian trade and travel and humanitarian assistance, many restrictions remain there, which will also be included as a key part of this report.

The data and information collected in this report are mainly based on local media agencies and platforms which are managed by the CAS data entry team. In this report, the political climate, economic situations and social issues happening in Rakhine will be addressed. At the end, the report has been summarized as the key remarks that the CAS would like to present to the respective report readers.

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#### About Center for Arakan Studies

The CAS is an independent, non-partisan and research-oriented group conducting research and analyzing issues related to Arakan/Rakhine affairs.

Mail:arakanstudies.org

##### Monthly Report | January 2023

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