Civilian Causalities and other data

The past around 20 days of armed clashes in November claimed the lives of at least 36 civilians in Rakhine State. The civilian fatalities occurred at the highest rate in Maungdaw township with 13 deaths and it is followed by the Ponnagyun township in which 12 people died. Then, it is the Kyauktaw township with 8 deaths and followed by Buthidaung and Sittwe with 2 and 1, respectively. But, the key reasons for the civilian deaths are not mostly due to the active exchange of gunfire or armed fighting between the two groups, but rather due to the random artillery shellings of the junta forces and intentional killings of the civilian people. Two key incidents confirmed this claim. The first event happened on November 8 in Hsininngyi village of Ponnagyun township, where the junta forces killed the rest 9 villagers by shooting intentionally when other villagers were displaced due to the mine explosion by the AA and retaliatory attacks by the junta forces. Then, the second incident occurred when ten residents were killed after three mortar shells landed and exploded in Jeitchaung (Mro) Village in Maungdaw Township at around 12 PM, November 16, 2022. Some sources said that the villagers were killed due to the artillery shelling from the junta military of No (24), Kyeinchaung checking gate and Border Guard Police Force, NaKaKa (7). Among the civilian deaths, there were 30 males and 6 females ranging from a 6 months-old infant to a 92 years-old grandma.

Related to the information on civilian injury, at least 59 people can be reported as injured due to armed conflicts or random artillery shelling of the junta forces. Like the causality figures, the highest rate of civilian injury is also occupied by the township of Maungdaw due to the Jeitchaung village incident with 27 injuries. Then, it is followed by the Kyauktaw with 14 as 9 civilians from Shwepyi, and Shwepyithit villages of Kyauktaw township injured in the same incident on November 11, 2022. Other events of civilian injury occurred in Buthidaung, Mrauk-U, Sittwe and Paletwa with 3, 2, 1, and 1, respectively.

Aside from these two categories, at least 7 people (6 males and 1 female) were also found on the lists of disappearance or missing. At Kyeinchaung security checkpoint in Maungdaw township, 2 persons were missed due to the investigation, while other incidents occurred differently at the checkpoint of the junta forces in Kyauktaw, due to the fleeing from the junta military raid in Ponnagyun townships and other separated cases.

Then, at least 73 civilians have been arrested mostly by the junta forces during November related to the armed conflict and politics. In this month, the townships of Sittwe and Ponnagyun stood as the first and second highest rate of civilian arrests in 21 and 16, respectively. And it was followed by Kyaukphyu, Thandwe and Minbya with 11, 7 and 7 in order. The rest also happened in other townships like Buthidaung, Maungdaw and Ann. Overwhelmingly, 72 out of 73 arrested civilians are men of various ages ranging from around 20 to over 50s. One female individual arrested is a 44 years-old woman from Kyaukphyu who worked as a government employee. In the three weeks of armed clashes and arrests, the number of arrested cases is the highest in the second week, with 40 cases for one week. Since more than 95 per cent of the civilian arrested cases was carried out by the junta forces, the AA also engaged in two events during November. The first one is related to the arrest of Kyaw Zaw Oo, the vice-chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), and the second case is about a police officer from Taunggok. Next, the backgrounds of the arrested individuals also vary, ranging from the government staff, administrators, business, and university students to ordinary civilians.

Key Remarks

The second phase of an informal ceasefire was introduced by the junta force and AA in the late November 2022. Since the resumption of armed clashes between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army in August, November marked the highest rate of civilian causalities, such as deaths and injuries, compared to the previous three months. This is mostly due to two key reasons such as the artillery shellings and intentional gun shoots at the village and villagers.

On the humanitarian front, the suspension of assistance from the INGOs, NGOs and CSOs since September 15 appeared to have more visible negative consequences this month, resulting in the reduction of food consumption and malnutrition for the IDP community. Next, the blockage of communication and transportation routes, such as cars and waterways, changed the livelihood system of millions of people in the northern and central parts of the state.

Besides, the introduction of the current informal ceasefire is quite immediate, given the level of armed clashes and civilian causalities during the second and third week of November. The armed clashes between the two sides stopped on November 20, 2022. But the artillery shelling and, thus, civilian causalities (death) happened until November 22 in Maungdaw township. Yet, the arrests of the civilian population still continued up to November 25 when the junta soldiers arrested the administrator of Thanpanchaung Ward, Kyaukphyu, for investigation. It was also the same day that the spokesperson of the junta council spoke about the ceasefire to the media, and the next day, it was also ratified by the spokesperson of the ULA/AA.

Mr. Khaing Thu Kha, during his press briefing, also remarked that the current informal ceasefire is purely a “humanitarian pause” as they decided to introduce it for the sake of humanitarian cause for the local population. He also added that the military and political standpoints of the ULA/AA would remain the same. Mr. Zaw Min Tun, the spokesperson of the junta council, also said that the ceasefire was initiated for the better situation of the Rakhine people. As a result, the liberalization of the blockage of roads and waterways was performed by the junta authority, and the potential for humanitarian tasks also appeared. But the news also reported that the junta military continuously carried out the reinforcements of their bases and stations in various ways. Thus, the signs for the sustainability of the current informal ceasefire were very low. To conclude, the current truce in Rakhine is neither a military agreement nor a political pact between the two parties. It can mainly be described as the resting time for another round of fighting.