Executive Summary

The Arakan (Rakhine) State, located in western Myanmar, has been a center of politically and economically conflict and tension due to both its strategic location and natural resources which also brings the state to become a significant area of interest for China and India. It shares a border with Bangladesh and the Bay of Bengal, making it an important region for trade and transportation in the regional economy. China has invested heavily in the Rakhine, including the construction of the Kyaukpyu deep-sea port, which provides a vital link between China's Yunnan Province and the Indian Ocean. China is, thus, protecting its investments and strategic interests in Rakhine by maintaining its relations with multiple stakeholders, including the Myanmar government and now junta regime, the Arakan Army (AA), and other ethnic armed groups. It has been involved in mediation efforts between the Myanmar government (and now Junta regime) and the ethnic groups to maintain stability and secure its interests. While India's approach to Rakhine has been primarily focused on countering China's influence in the region, its Kaladan Project aims to connect India's northeast region to Myanmar's coast and beyond, reducing India's dependence on the vulnerable Siliguri Corridor. The Indian approach towards Rakhine was based on its relationship with the government, now mainly with the regime. It doesn’t have a good tie with local stakeholders including the AA. India’s approach nevertheless soon after the February 2021 coup has shifted to balance relations with both regime and local stakeholders that intends to help to improve the pragmatic movement of its mega-project in Rakhine. The region has, since 2017, been full of complicated political affairs, includes Rohingya crisis, and therefore, the local stakeholders including the AA require to be aware of applying the strength of the strategic geopolitics for the development of the local community.