2. A Quick Look at Political Climate

The political situation in December stabilized to a degree because of the ceasefire; however, the fragile peace is continuously undermined by the consequences of conflict and junta machinations... Headlines about the planned election, military reinforcements, military interference in civil administration, community insecurity frequently appear in local outlets.

In the first week of December, the military started reinforcing troops in Minbya, Mrauk-U, and Kyauktaw townships. On December 3, , in two separate incidents landmine explosions injured one Mro and one Rohingya man in. In some cases, the military’s vessels returned money and materials collected from the boat owners in Rathedaung townships.

"After the informal ceasefire, AA made a detailed list of what was taken from the boats travelling in the area and sent a letter of objection to the army. AA took action against that navy officer to give back the money and materials collected by SAC’s military vessel to 30 boats yesterday. After doing this, the navy and the army no longer dare to ask for more. Everything is fine," a boat owner told Narinjara on December 6, 2022.

The Kaman minority ethnic people also held their national day on December 5, 2022, in Yangon and called for more minority rights. In the second week, 70 village administrators resigned in Ponnagyun township and residents of Mrauk-U, Minbya, Kyauktaw, Maungdaw, Ponnagyun, Myebon townships called for the lift of curfew by Junta on December 10. The military proxy party, Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), prepares for August 2023 through a meeting with its townships party members.

December’s third week saw Rakhine State Day held in Sittwe with the chairperson of the junta’s Rakhine State Administration Council junta council mentioning their peace talks with the Arakan Liberation Party (ALP) and willingness of the discussion with the ULA/AA as well. In Rathedaung township, at least junta-appointed 19 ward and village administrators resigned on December 17. Family members of political prisoners told local media that they demanded permission to meet with their loved ones by relaxing the COVID-19 restrictions. In Kyaukphyu township, the local people also called for allowing no checking for the emergency patients on the roads to the hospital. On the other hand, in Kyauktaw township, the local people were frightened due to the gunfire of the junta soldiers as well on December 21. For the election news, the Rakhine State junta administration has begun the process of census conduction for the coming election.

In the final week of December, the news said that the junta soldiers sold food and commodities near the markets of Sittwe, Ann, Taungup, and Gwa townships. But only a few people bought it. On the other hand, the NCA signatory groups, including the ALP, discussed with junta leaders regarding the constitution amendment process on December 24. While the news of military reinforcements continued, cases of gunfire were also reported along the border with Bangladesh. In Maungdaw township, government employees and some local people hide from sight due to the fear of arrest by the junta forces. While the family members of the prisoners called for the release of their loved ones during the ceasefire period, the local people in Rethedaung and Ponnagyun townships also faced administrative delays due to the resignation of local administrators. Finally, the FPNCC members, including the ULA, met with the new China special envoy to Myanmar on December 29. The NCA signatory groups, including the ALP, issued a statement on December 30 on the agreement of the junta-organized 2023 election.