New Developments

Based on news reports, the Center for Arakan Studies has identified at least 74 battles have erupted between the junta military and the AA over the previous three months.

At least 10 clashes could be reported as ‘fierce battles’ based on the intensity of fighting, combatant causalities, and number of internally displaced persons (IDPs). The four townships in which these fighting outbroke were Maungdaw, Paletwa, Buthedaung, and Rethedaung.

Other less frequent and small-scale armed clashes and mine explosions also happened in the townships like Taunggok, Kyauktaw, Mrauk U, Minbya, Myaybone, and Ann. But the most frequent clashes took place 18 locations in Paletwa and 17 locations in Maungdaw, which both townships possessing international borders and important geo-strategic interests.

On August 2, 2022, the first clash between the two actors in Kinn Chaung and Tha Htay Kone villages in eastern Paletwa city could be found. Soon after, the fighting rapidly moved to other townships such as Maungdaw and Rethedaung townships.

About 10 days later, a fierce battle erupted near Donpaik and Cheinkhali villages on the base of the Mayu mountain ranges in the west Rethedaung township. During its clash, at least 31 junta soldiers were killed while around 700 IDPs were forced to displace because of fear to be bombed at their village.

As battles in these townships continued, the fighting sparked into southern township Taunggok, and central township Mrauk-U on August 25 and 28 respectively

And a series of fierce battles in September continued mostly in the two townships of Paletwa and Maungdaw.

On September 1, the intensive fighting began killing many junta soldiers who tried to break out the west of Myeik Wa village near the Indian border in Paletwa Township, in which the military council also launched the air strike. This incident also forced around 500 local villagers to flee into the India border.

Similarly, the stormy fights that took place on September 3,9,15,19 and 22 in different locations in Maungdaw township such as Kha Maung Seik, Min Khamaung, Tarain, Mingyi, Long Dom, KyainChaung, Gottpi, Mee Taik, Gutar Pyin and Thayet Taung villages, and turned hundreds of villagers into displacement camps. More furious and frequent fighting could be found in Buthedaung township in October. On October 3 and 27, two fierce battles have been reported near Kyauk Sar Taing Village and Taung (Muslim) Village in Buthedaung township respectively and at least 28 junta soldiers were killed with more than 30 injuries.

Some numbers of AA soldiers were also reportedly killed and injured during the clashes. During September, the frequency and intensity of the armed clashes peaked other than in the other two months

In line with the data, the junta engaged at least 7 airstrikes and one reported drone strike, but the effectiveness of the actions remains hard to verify. Excessive use of artillery shelling especially by the junta forces could be accounted for, but the exact number cannot be described. Along the fights, at least 139 soldiers of the junta military were mentioned to be killed on the battlefields although the rest number and the exact inquiries are hard to notify. Not exactly knowing the causalities from the AA side, but at least 10 could be counted as deaths and injuries over the previous three months fighting.